Tài liệu Vietnam Facts ppt

4
Oneofthefastestg rowingeconomiesinAsia–
SustainableGDPGrowth
EconomicreformshaveturnedVietnamintothethirdfastestgrowingeconomyintheregion,followingChina
andIndiain2007
„ GrowthinManufacturingandConstructionhasbeenthemainengineforGDPgrowthinVietnam
„ BiggestcontributionstoGDPgrowthin2007include:Manufacturing:10.6%,Services:8.7%and
Agriculture:3.5%
„ Arecordg rowthrateof8.4%hasbeenachievedin2007
Source:MinistryofFinance Source:IMF
(Giácả hiệntại)
(%)
Vietnamhasgoodconditionstosuccessfullycompleteitsindustrializationprocess
RealGDPGrowth(20002006E) GDPGro wthintheRegion
6.9%
7.1%
7.3%
7.8%
8.4% 8.2% 8.5%
6.8%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
4.95.14.56.3TháiLan
7.35.44.96.6Philippines
6.35.95.06.8Malaysia
8.58.28.47.8Vietnam
6.35.55.75.0Indonesia
7.78.27.39.0Singapo
9.29.79.17.9India
11.411.110.410.1China
2007200620052004Nước
5
ReasonableG DPGrowthRates
GDPGro wthBySector
RealGDPContribution
Eventhoughtheservicessectorshavebeengrowingsteadily,makingremarkable
contributionstotheoveralleconomicgrowth,thecountry’sGDPgrowthhasstillmainly
attributedtothemanufacturingsector
(%share) (%YoY)
Source:MinistryofFinance
Source:MinistryofFinance
22,7
36,6
39,4
40,2
41,6
38,6
41,0
40,4
40,3
38,1 38,1
38,7
22,4
20,2
19,6
20,36 20,25
41,6
1990 2001 2004 2005 2006 2007
Industry Services Agriculture
100.0 100.0 100.0
9,4
10,3
10,2
10,6
10,37
10,6
6,5
7,0
8,0
8,5
8,3
8,7
4,1
3,2
3,5
4,0
3,4 3,4
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Industry Services Agriculture
100.0 100.0
6
PrudentBudgetControl
Vietnam’sFisca lpolicyhasbeenreformed
throughexpenditurecontrolandrevenue
expansionmeasures
„ Since2000,budgetdeficithasbeen
maintainedbelowthetargetof2.5%GDP
 ExpenditurecannotexceedRevenue
 Commercialloansforbudget
expenditurepurposesareforbidden
„ Taxreformsconcentrateondirectsolutionsin
taxcollections
„ Bytheendo fthefiscalyearof2007,budget
deficitwaskeptat1.8%/GDPCuốinămtài
khoá2007,thâmhụtNSởmức18%/GDP
Note:Fig uresc alculatedunderIMFst andards
Source:MinistryofTrade
Source:MinistryofFinance
(VNDbillion) (%)
FiscalPosition(20002007) TotalRevenueBreakdown(2007)
(17,213)
(12,142)
(10,017)
(13,300)
(12,025)
(10,904)
(12,402)
2.8%
2.5%
1.9%
1.8%
1.1%
1.6%
1.8%
1.8%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
FiscalBalance %GDP
ValueAddedTax
22.1%
IncomeTax
38.7%
Other
12.8%
NonTaxRevenue
4.4%
CapitalRevenue
5.8%
NaturalRes.Tax
7.7%
ImportandExportTax
8.6%
7
ExternalDebtsundercontrol
Vietnam’sexternaldebtspositionhasbeen
improvedconsiderablyinrecentyears
„ Thetargetsofexternaldebtsnotexceeding
20%ofexportearningsandtotaldebtsnot
exceeding50%GDPhavebeenachieved.
„ Currentwithrespecttodebtpaymentsonall
outstandingexternaldebt
Vietnamhasbeenimprovingtheadministrationofexternaldebts,oneofthemeasuresto
improveeffectiveadministrationofthefinancialsectorinthecountry
Source:MinistryofFinance,State BankofViệtNam
(US$triệu)
(%)
Note:D ebtServiceRatioiscalculatedasrationoftotaldebtservicetoexportsof
goodsandnonfactorservicesin%
Source:MinistryofFinance,State BankofViệtNam
ExternalDebtObligationsDebtServiceCoverage
870
792
753
619
638
160
154
146
133
125
2006 2007 2008F 2009F 2010F
Principal Interest
1,030
946
899
752
762
38,9%
30,5%
30,0%
35,3%
31,5%
32,1%
33,7%
39.1%
7,0%
7,1%
7,5%
8,1%
6,7%
7,1%
10,4%
11.1%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
TotalExternalDebt/GDP DSR
8
ImprovingBoPPosition
Vietnam’sBalanceof Paymentshasbeen
improvedthroughmoresustainableforeign
reserves
Nguồn:BTC,StateBankofViệtNam
ForeigncapitalinflowshaveresultedinasurplusinVi etnam’sBalanceofPayments
Nguồn:BTC,NHNN
(US$triệu)
(US$triệu)
CurrentAccount(20002007)
BalanceofPayments(20002007)
(US$triệu)
CapitalAccount(20002007)
270
1.800
1.142
217
(925)
(1,931)
(863)
682
2,50%
0,7%
(4.9%)
3,7%
2,1%
(2.0%)
0,9%
(2.5%)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
CurrentAccount As%ofGDP
220
1,136
1,913
2,604
2,447
4,083
(754)
17.00%
6.2%
12.0%
6.0%
8.3%
5.8%
0.7%
(2.4%)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
CapitalAccount As%ofGDP
40
350
2.150
883
2.131
10.700
2.874
323
15,0%
6,8%
8,6%
1,9%
5,4%
1,0%
0,1%
(1.0%)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
BOP As%ofGDP
9
11.175
12.985
16150
16.049
15.740
15.608
15.368
15.070
14.504
14.018
15.875
11.050
11.023
10.000
11.000
12.000
13.000
14.000
15.000
16.000
17.000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
StableExchangeRates
Vietnammaintainsamanagedfloatinitsforeign
exchangeregime
„ AflexibleexchangerateoftheVietnamDong
hasfacilitatedexports
„ Riskmitigatingcostsoffo reigninvestorshave
beenlowered
Nguồn:NHNN
ExchangeRates(1995–2007)
Theexchangeratestabilityhassuccessfullyfacilitated tradeandinvestment
2/1999:Fixedexchange
rateregimechanged 
intoamanagedfloat
regime
10
StableExchangeRate–ForeignReserves
OfficialForeignReserves
Foreignreservescontinu etogrowsteadily
(mlUS$)
ForeignReservesImprovement
(Monthsofimports)
4
Source:MinistryofFinance Source:MinistryofFinance
2.956
4.866
5.554
7.728
12.000
21.000
2.555
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
399
1.910
688
2.174
4.272
9000
365
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
11
2 MajorReforms
12
SOEReforms
Trade
Liberalization
Nonstate
sectors
Development
Banking
Reforms
Legal
Reforms
Fiscal
Reforms
CapitalMarket
Development
1
2
3
4
7
6
5
13
Lotsofeffectivetradeliberalizationmeasureshaveboostedinternationaltrade
„ Vietnam’s5yearperiodtradep oliciesbeginningin2001reducednontariffbarrierstotrade
„ SincetheconclusionoftheUS–VietnamBTAin2001,Vietnam’se xportturnovertotheUS
increasedfrom USD1.1bnin2001toUSD1 0.7bnin2007
„ Totalexport turnoverreachedUSD4 8.6bnin2007
TradeLiberalization:Nextsteps
TariffandNontariffbarriersnegotiations
BankingSectorDevelopmentandSOE
Reforms
Creationofsufficientsocialsecurity
Transparencyinthelegalsystem
TaxandCustomsReforms
WTOentryforVietnamwillfacilitateanaccelerationofmarketbasedreforms
(US$billion)
1
ExportEarnings(20002007)
Sequenceofmajorreformsintrade
liberalization
Source:MinistryofTrade,GeneralStatisticalOffice
15,0
16,7
20,1
26,5
32,4
48,6
39,8
14,5
22,00%
19,9%
14,7%
18,3%
18,8%
7,1%
5,1%
19,5%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Exports %toUS

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